How much will US data center construction spending be in October 2026?

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Context only: the projects, end users' spending plans and signals do not enter the base rate; they inform the marginal adjustment.

Largest projects

US data center capacity under construction: 37.7 GW (Cushman & Wakefield, Americas, first half of 2026),¹ more than 66 GW (JLL, North America, mid-2026),² about 80 GW (Wood Mackenzie, US, second quarter of 2026).³ By capacity, these projects are roughly a quarter to three fifths of what is being built, and less at any one time, since part of their planned capacity has not started. Census counts private projects of every size.

Capacity is as each source states it: IT load for some projects, total facility power for others, which runs higher. Confirmed: stated by the owner, builder, customer or a government record. Estimated: a third party.

Project table →

End users' spending plans

The companies that will use the capacity drive the investment. Each states its capital spending each quarter; it covers chips and servers as well as buildings.

Signals before each release

Contractor and supplier results, company comments, project news and policy, each counted against the first release it came before. Up: faster than the base rate.

Signals leaned up before every release, and five of six misses were up: no better than guessing slightly above the base rate each month.

I think these signals are better suited to serve as major regime change signals: a major reversal, or a big acceleration given large news or massive outlook changes. They are less useful for marginal adjustments. I rely most heavily on the base rate, and the marginal adjustment should be exactly that, marginal.

Signals for October

The Dodge index's October decline and Microsoft's pullback are the only relevant down signals; each adds marginal downward pressure.

Strength and source quality are subjective.

To watch

• ConstructConnect's monthly data center report: a repeat source that could give leading information on a regular basis.⁴
• Data center construction costs per square foot are rising.⁴
• So little has happened in the Rocky Mountain West, which probably has the most available empty space for these projects, with lots of federal land. It could be a frontier for the next step up in new project starts.⁴

Sources

1. Cushman & Wakefield. Americas Data Center Update, H1 2026.
2. JLL. North America Data Center Report, midyear 2026.
3. Wood Mackenzie. US data centre additions, Q2 2026. 2026-10-28.
4. ConstructConnect. "November 2026 Data Center Report: September adds $9.4B in construction starts, costs continue to increase." 2026-10-30.

Each project and signal links to its own source. Data: projects, signals.

Last updated 2026-11-10 · history

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